| Abstract |
“What if surviving global warming depends less on genes—and more on how organisms develop?” Context: As global temperatures rise, species must adapt to survive. Traditional models of adaptation focus on genetic variation, selection and inheritance. But they overlook how developmental processes—how organisms grow, allocate energy and interact with their environment—shape traits like body size, and thereby steer adaptation to global warming. This proposal introduces a new framework, development-centric demography, to better understand and predict how species adapt to warming. Challenge: A species’ ability to adapt to warming depends on its demography—survival, growth and reproduction traits that shape populations. Most demographic models use statistics to describe how these traits change with temperature, but they do not explain how they arise in the first place. Simultaneously, conservation focuses on short-term actions like shielding animals from heat, overlooking developmental processes that support long-term resilience. To reduce extinction risk, we need demographic models and conservation strategies that mechanistically include development, offering causal understanding of species adaptation. Aim: To develop, analyse and apply a development-centric demographic framework that incorporates two key mechanisms—developmental bias (how internal processes shape trait variation exposed to selection) and agency (how organisms influence their own developmental environment, altering the selection they experience)—to inform adaptation-smart conservation interventions that reduce species extinction risk under global warming. Beyond pushing the frontiers of evolution and conservation science, the project will: Translate findings into an interactive Minecraft Education experience, enabling students to explore adaptation and interventions through game-based learning. Engage the public through popular science articles and museum exhibits that communicate how species adapt to climate change. Objectives: We focus on ectotherms (coldblooded animals) because they are most abundant but also most threatened. Develop novel, development-centric demographic models that integrate temperature-dependent energetics and capture how developmental bias and agency shape ectotherm developmental trajectories under warming. Analyse how development-centric demography alters predictions of extinction risk under warming and determine which ectotherm developmental trajectories and interventions enhance adaptive capacity. Apply the framework, empirically testing how developmental bias and agency shape adaptive responses in a tractable, well-characterised bulb mite system, assessing generality across ectothermic species in silico, and informing the design of conservation interventions. Engage students and the public through Minecraft Education, science communication and museum exhibits. Scientific Impact: This project pioneers a development-centric perspective in evolutionary biology, offering new insights into how developmental processes shape adaptation and evolution. It will advance demographic theory by integrating developmental bias and agency, revealing how organisms influence their own evolutionary trajectories. The work also informs interdisciplinary discussions on how development and agency shape adaptation in non-human and human ecology. Conservation Impact: By shifting focus from short-term protection to long-term adaptive capacity, this research will support more effective conservation strategies by identifying which developmental stages are most sensitive to warming and how they can be targeted in conservation interventions. The models developed will be applicable across a wide range of species, supporting biodiversity policy and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Educational and Societal Impact: We will inspire and educate through a custom-built Minecraft Education experience, where players manage a wildlife reserve under global warming. This game-based learning reinforces key scientific ideas and promotes climate awareness. Public engagement through science writing and exhibits will promote climate literacy and encourage public dialogue on species resilience. |